League Lessons: "Deep" Thoughts

Too Many Eggs, Only One Basket…

In my limited experience with fantasy football I have learned a few vital lessons I believe every leaguer must learn early on to become successful. For instance the way (and when) you draft is very important. Waiver pick up are crucial to a solid season. And don’t even get me started on matchups. The lessons I have learned and applied team have made the difference in a 5-11 season last year and a 6-1 start so far this year.

My biggest problem this year was my draft, but the biggest problem with the draft wasn’t even my fault. The draft was done three weeks in advance…of the PRESEASON. At that point, if you may recall, Sidney Rice was primed for his second big season, JerMichael Finley was healthy, Larry Fitzgerald was a first round pick, and Brett Favre was going to be the Super Bowl MVP. The preseason is an important part of the draft process. Being able to read game analysis and apply it to your draft model will set you up for a better draft.

I must admit, I made a huge mistake in my draft this year right from my first round pick. I had the 4^th overall pick and was ready to assemble a monster team. But I stumbled out of the gate, and I was in for a tragic night. Number one Adrian Peterson, two, Maurice Jones-Drew (this is looking good…), three, Chris Johson (damn it); then came the worst placed pick of all time. With the fourth pick of the 2010 Blakeney League Draft, BamaMan selects, Drew Brees from the New Orleans Saints. It was a mistake that would haunt me for weeks. I still had Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Rashard Mendenhall ahead of me and I went for a quarterback, effectively ruining my chance of being elite and the running back position. And the irony of it all was Frank Gore didn’t even get selected until the 20^th pick, one pick away from my second pick of the night, which ended up being Steven Jackson. I’m just saying, if you want a great team and not just the best player you’ll draft running backs and wide receivers with your first 6-7 rounds with an elite TE thrown in at the end. You’ll still land a guy like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisberger in the late rounds.  Not only will you have the top point-getters, you’ll have to ammo to make some killer trades.

Remember how I just said, “the preseason is an important part of the draft process,” two minutes ago, well it’s true. I was watching the Dallas Cowboys play a preseason game against another team from Texas. While watching I couldn’t help but focus on the amazing play of one player and I couldn’t figure out how I had never heard of him. I went to NFL.com to see if he was a free agent in my league and I picked him up. From that point on Arian Foster has been my lead back in every game that he’s been active.

I’ve admitted my draft was pretty bad. My original squad had guys like Sidney Rice (yet to play a snap), Donald Brown (total 81 rush yards and 1 TD), and the Bengals’ defense. It was a day I don’t want to remember, but I have made up for it through the art of the trade. I have taken to the school of thought that sometimes I can beat myself with my choices. Just last week I was trying to decide if I should start Robert Meachem or Mike William (Seattle). I asked guys on the discussion boards, talked to friends, looked at their respective matchups and even ran the numbers. At the last second I switched my lineup because I couldn’t decide. That Sunday Meachem went for 33 total yards while Mike Williams sat on my bench scoring 14.7 points on 87 yards and a touchdown. It was at that moment I said to myself, “I don’t want to have to choose.”

This week I sent out a few trades and finally had one go through sending Williams, Dez Bryant, and Reggie Bush to my boy Brennen. In return I was given Desean Jackson, star receiver of the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though he’s on a bye and I most likely conceded a win to my friend Jon this week I like this decision. It’s a real “loose the battle to win the war” kind of thing. Now my lineup will be essentially the same every week because I don’t have to contemplate anything. Roddy White, Calvin Johnson and Desean Jackson would start every week no matter what team they’re on. It just so happens they are all on my team.

I hope you can take note of these lessons and use them quicker than I did. It’s not fun being the worst draft guy, or even worse, last place in your league. Good luck the heading towards the playoffs.

The Good, the Bad & the Benched...

I Hate Bye Weeks…

With the Falcons, Bears, Eagles, Giants, Ravens, & Browns all on bye weeks-and all possessing fantasy studs- your team may be in a little trouble this week. Take for instance my team that is sitting Roddy White, Peyton Hillis, and my newly acquired wideout Desean Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited about the future I’m just not too thrilled about inevitably getting my second loss of the season to the 2^nd place team (who is stacked by the way). In any case there are still plenty of guys who will step up to produce huge numbers this week. Remember three things: check the waiver wire, play the matchups, and like I’ve been saying all year, anything is possible this year.

Lineup of the Week:

QB: Peyton Manning

RB: Chris Johnson

RB: Arian Foster

WR: Calvin Johnson

WR: Dwayne Bowe

FLEX: Frank Gore

K: Rob Bironas

D/ST: Tennessee Titans

Who’s In

Quarterback:

-Josh Freeman (@ Cardinals): Over the last two weeks Freeman has thrown for over 200 yards and tossed 3 touchdowns in each game. Not to mention his last minute heroic against the Rams last week to send his team to 4-2. This week the Bucs travel to Arizona to take on a weak pass defense. The running game will get going, opening up the field for Freeman to have a very solid statistical day. Expect close to 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.

-Donovan McNabb (@ Lions): I haven’t been too big on McNabb this year and have yet to put him on this list until today. Over the last 4 weeks he is only averaging 11.48 points but he has had some decent games. He takes on Detroit this week and has the weapons and the ability to have a good game. Not huge numbers, but if you regularly start Flacco, Cutler, or Ryan he may put up decent totals.

-Matt Stafford (v. Redskins): I was going to put Ryan Fitzpatrick in this spot but he’s been playing so great that it’s obvious he’s a good pick. Stafford is coming off a injury, but he also had a bye week to get enough reps in with the first team to get back on track. The Redskins run defense is way better than their pass defense so I expect Stafford to make some great throws downfield to his big play guys (come on Calvin Johnson), as well as hit Brandon Pettigrew in the short game. This is a great week for Stafford to return to the helm and I expect solid numbers from him. He’ll probably throw at least one pick, but you can also expect 200 yards and 2 touchdowns.

-Sleeper Alert-Matt Moore (@ Rams): Moore returned from his short hiatus on the bench with a bang throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns. He spread the ball out to his young, athletic receivers and let them make plays. If he can maintain that trust in his wideouts he will be successful. Matt Moore will have another solid game against a formidable Rams defense. Perhaps your quarterback is on a bye and you’re a huge Panthers fan (ahem…Braydon).

Running Back:

-Marshawn Lynch (@ Raiders): Lynch has cemented himself as the starter, and more effective back, for this Seattle offense. If it weren’t for a few key penalties he could have had a much bigger stat line last week getting into the endzone. The Raiders put a hurting on a Broncos team that doesn’t feature the run very well. The Seahawks will look to limit mistakes and hand the ball off. Another good day is in store for Marshawn Lynch.

-Ronnie Brown (@ Bengals): I’m doing this out of good faith that he won’t disappoint me, and I really didn’t want to put Arian Foster on here again, that’s a gimme. Brown has struggled to produce this year and needs to get rolling for the Dolphins to win down the stretch. The Bengals gave up 123 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Michael Turner last week. I don’t believe Brown will be that successful but he has a chance to have his best statistical game of the year so far.

-Felix Jones (v. Jaguars): The Cowboys are crumbling before our eyes each time they step on the field. Now, with the loss of their franchise quarterback, they will look to use Felix Jones as much as possible in the future. A good matchup against the Jags gives Jones just the opportunity he needs to produce solid fantasy totals.

-Sleeper Alert-LeGarrett Blount (@ Cardinals): Blount carried the ball 11 times for 72 yards last Sunday and played far better than Cadillac Williams out of the back field. He is slated to get even more carries this week and against a Cardinals defense that is prone to giving up big runs his stats could improve. 10-12 fantasy points can be expected this Sunday out of Blount.

Wide Receiver:

-Steve Johnson (@ Chiefs): Johnson has played amazing over the last few weeks. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over as the starter Johnson has averaged at least 50 yards and a touchdown a game, including a 158 yard 1 touchdown performance last week. The offense in Buffalo is clicking right now and they seem to play better against tougher opponents. Johnson’s statistical success will continue this week in Kansas City.

-Mike Williams (@ Cardinals): endzone at least once and is good for 60-75 yards on a day where he will see plenty of targets.

-Dez Bryant (v. Jaguars): Once Jon Kitna was in the game on Monday night Bryant caught 4 passes for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns. With the Cowboys’ season in jeopardy they may turn to their younger playmakers to give them time to mature on the field. I think Bryant may start off slow on Sunday but will finish with a bang just like last week.

-Sleeper Alert-Blair White (v. Texans): Three reasons I like this pick: White will get more playing time due to injuries, the Colts play the Houston Texans who cannot defend against the pass, and his quarterback is this guy Peyton Manning I’m not sure if you’ve heard of him but apparently he’s pretty good. Manning will spread the ball around with supreme confidence which benefits White greatly who is superb in the redzone and has great hands.

Tight End:

-Tony Moeaki (v. Bills): His production has taken a hit ever since Dwayne Bowe decided he wants to play football again but this is a great matchup play. The Bills haven’t been able to guard tight ends all season, especially in the redzone where the Chiefs are bound to spend significant time. If their offense is clicking any one of their top stars is capable of going off. It’s a risky play but given the matchup and the way the team is playing it is a safer choice than say a Jeremy Shockey.

-Jason Witten (v. Jaguars): Sorry Jags I know it feels like I’m picking on you. It’s not you, it’s him; Witten has been much more productive over the last two weeks and will serve as the proverbial security blanket for Kitna. If the Boys get deep in the redzone they will run Witten right across the middle for a safe catch.

-Zach Miller (v. Seahawks): This guy has been having a breakout year and will continue on Sunday. The Seahawks pass defense is week and Miller is the only real threat at any given time. He’ll let McFadden and Bush do all the work up front and then top it off with the occasional 10 yard catch or touchdown.

-Dustin Keller (v. Packers): Here is another guy who decided to play out of nowhere this year. Keller is a big part of why Mark Sanchez has been so efficient and will continue to be his best option under pressure. He has had a few tough weeks and he probably won’t get a ton of yards but he is reliable and should get opportunities to score.

-Sleeper Alert-Andrew Quarless (@ Jets): Since getting the opportunity to see the field Quarless has score twice, which is more than you can say for most tight ends. Guys usually give you 30-60 yards and that’s it but Quarless is capable of 30 and a touchdown especially with the injuries the Packers are dealing with. He is a deep sleeper but if you have Dallas Clark and Todd Heap he is a good upside pick.

Kicker of the Week:

-John Kasay (@ Rams): This may be the only time he makes this list but he has a good shot. An upstart offense with no running game right now and a quarterback that struggles once in the redzone equals many more opportunities than normal for Kasay.

Defense of the Week:

-Tampa Bay Bucs (@ Cardinals): Good cornerbacks, and decent pass rush and a bad offense to play against means Tampa Bay is in store for their best week since playing the Panthers.

Who’s Out

Quarterback:

-Carson Palmer (v. Dolphins): Palmer had a great game last week against the Falcons and looks to return to form for the rest of the season. I just don’t see it happening, at least not this week against a great pass rush in the Miami Dolphins. The Fins will rush Palmer into bad decisions and cause issues for Terrell Owen and Chad Ochocinco. Keep Palmer on your bench if you can.

-Brett Favre (@ Patriots): If I’m Tavaris Jackson and I watch the Vikings choice a 41 year old man with multiple stress fractures in his ankle and who has thrown as many interceptions in 6 games as he did all last year over me, I just might burn the place down. There is no logical reason why the Vikings should start Brett Favre and neither should you. I’m sure if you have him he’s just a bye week replacement (Jon), and after his ghastly performance for you last Sunday it’s time to cut him loose all together. He hasn’t had the same confidence that we’ve come to know and love and it’s showing. The Pats secondary is questionable but Favre is more so. I know it’s not a big revelation I just wanted to emphasize my displeasure with the Vikings continuing to start Brett Favre simply because he is Brett Favre.

-Sam Bradford (v. Panthers): Recently Bradford has been a staple of my “who’s in” list but this week he is up against a dangerous opponent- a one win team coming off their first victory of the season. The Panthers have a very solid defense and may not full stop Bradford but will create enough mistakes to keep him on your bench. Rookie quarterbacks who have had some success tend to play down against lower ranked teams. I expect a less than average day for Bradford. Just hand it off the Steven Jackson, Brad.

-Watch Out-Phillip Rivers (v. Titans): Phillip Rivers is in the top two, in my opinion, when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks. No matter what happens he seems to come out as a good option throwing for anywhere between 250-450 yards and a few touchdowns each week. But I have two issues this week: 1) last week looked pretty rough without Malcolm Floyd or Legedu Nannee & 2) the Tennessee Titans are playing better as a defensive unit than any team in the league. I’ll probably still start Rivers because you can’t sit a guy like that but I’m tempering my expectations of him. Go get ‘em Phil.

Running Back:

-Ryan Matthews (v. Titans): Matthews has struggled since injuring his ankle and this week won’t get any better against the Titans. Tennessee’s defense gives up a little under 98 rushing yards against but has only conceded one rushing touchdown all year. In the five games Matthews has played in the most scrimmage yards he’s gained in one outing is 80 yards and he only has one touchdown to his two fumbles. He hasn’t had the time to develop and isn’t ready to be a feature back on a regularly stellar team. Makes you really want LT back, doesn’t it Chargers’ fans?

-Fred Jackson (@ Chiefs): The Bills have talked for the last three weeks about getting Jackson more involved in the offense but he still isn’t producing. Through six games he only has 233 rushing yards and one touchdown. The Bills passing game is really clicking and they usually play from behind; a bad mix for a running back trying to get more involved.

-Benjarvis Green-Ellis (v. Vikings): It’s the same story every year: Patriots hot new running back has a few decent games and ends up on everybody’s radar. He gets picked up and replaces a starter on a bye week just in time to disappoint you. The Vikings are a solid defense against the run and “the law firm” will not give you what you’re looking for this week.

-Watch Out- Cedric Benson (v. Dolphins): Benson is having a much slower statistical year than in the past. The Bengals entire offense is stagnant- outside of last week- and it starts with the running game. Last week he had 76 total yards and a crucial fumble at the end of a close game against Atlanta. Miami is a much better run defense and will make things very difficult for Benson. Chances are you have a guy you’ve benched for him all year (say a Beanie Wells or Knowshown Moreno) who you should give a shot this week.

Wide Receiver:

-Donald Driver (@ Jets): I know you think I’m going to say the Jets defense will shut him down but actually the Jets defense hasn’t been all that great against the pass this year. The problem is Driver is being overlooked for James Jones on the few times they look his way instead of Greg Jennings. Also, he is dealing with a quad injury and is coming off his first game without a reception in 133 games.

-Michael Crabtree (v. Denver): Crabtree has had a few good games this year but has been far too inconsistent to get regular starting consideration. Now, he and the 49ers take the field with former Heisman Trophy Winner and Ohio State grad, Troy Smith, and the helm. I think Smith could be good down the road but not in his first start. Keep Crabtree on your bench until the chemistry hits.

-Wes Welker (v. Miami): Nobody wishes Randy Moss was still in New England than this guy. Since Moss has left he has had 53 and 25 yards in the two games and has not crossed the goal line. With teams able to focus more on Welker he sees more double teams and struggles to get open. Look for more receiving woes this week against a strong Miami defense.

-Watch Out- Miles Austin (v. Jaguars): I know the Jaguars defense has more issues than Britney Spears but looking at Austin’s production over the last few weeks coupled with Tony Romo being out for the next 6-8 weeks the near future does not look bright. In the short time Jon Kitna had to work with his team he seemed to favor Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Either way the connection won’t be the same so if you do start Austin temper your expectations.

Tight End:

-Jeremy Shockey (v. Steelers): It’s very simple here guys: a lack of statistical production and possibly the worst matchup a tight end could ask for equals a warm spot on the bench for Mr. Shockey. No real analysis here, my 19 month old daughter picked this one.

-Visanthe Shiancoe (@ Patriots): He could have had a much better week last week if the refs weren’t blind and dumb but the fact is Shiancoes production has not increases with the Moss trade and now it can only get worse with Brett Favre in need of a rolling-walker and an AARP card. Shiancoe will probably be active in many leagues because of the six teams on byes this week but if you can avoid it keep him on your bench.

-Jermaine Gresham (v. Dolphins): I expected a lot out of Gresham at the beginning of the year and he has sorely disappointed. That never sits well with me and usual lands a player on my bench list. The Bengals are one of the teams in disarray and a rookie tight end cannot fix issues like they have. He may be good for the occasional touchdown but don’t expect much more than that.

-Watch Out-Vernon Davis (v. Broncos): I’m probably way off on this one because Davis is the most athletic, fastest, strongest guy on the field when the Niners’ offense takes to it. His situation is very volatile. Davis may go off for 130 yards and a touchdown because Troy Smith needs a safe bet in his first start. Or he may catch one pass for 8 yards as the entire passing game falls apart in Smith’s first start. I’m sure it won’t be that extreme but I can’t put my chips in the 49ers’ basket right now.

-Kicker Sit of the Week:

-Olindo Mare (@ Raiders): After a great outing last week in which the Seahawks could not get in the end zone to save man kind, Mare faces a much tougher task this week against a strong Raiders team. Oakland gives up less than 6 points a game to kickers and blocked 2 kicks in a row against San Diego.

-Defensive Sit of the Week:

-49ers (@ Broncos): Denver has a very good passing attack and it looks like Knowshown Moreno is about to make a comeback this week. I expect him to really get things going against the underachieving defense of San Francisco. Kyle Orton will not be denied regardless of who he plays (with the exception of the Oakland Raiders). Coming off an extremely embarrassing beat down at the hands of the Raiders look for Orton and the Broncos to bounce back and carve up the Niners’ defense.

Week 8 Game Picks

Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner…

It was a little better in week 7 as I finished 8-6 for the week in game picks, my first week over 500. If this season has taught me anything it’s that anything is possible in the National Football League. I think that is what draws us to it with such fervor. I was talking to a patient last Friday who use to play college football and went on the semi-pro and Arena Football. He talked in length about how the game has changed and how all these hitting rules are ruining the sport (which I agree with), but he also talked about why Americans love the game so much. Football is a sport of emotion, an act of harnessing and controlling your anger and aggression and coming together in a common goal to achieve victory. The team that is together in their actions wins the game. How many of you saw the Browns beat down of the Saints coming? I didn’t think so.

We are at week 8, the mid way point of the season. Only 6 more games in the fantasy regular season and my league is getting intense. I have trade offers abound and the one wrong, or right, decision can make or break the season. All I know is this is an exciting year for football.

Bill @ Chiefs: The Bills have been quite the surprise this over their last 4 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. As the starting signal-caller, Fitzpatrick has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 969 yards in the last 4 games. Steve Johnson and Lee Evans have broken out as fantasy beasts over that time span and will continue to thrive in an offense that has found its swagger. While the run game hasn’t been the best, Fred Jackson was able to post respectable numbers against a stout Raven defense last Sunday. The Chiefs are a legitimate contender with the dynamic duo of Thomas Jones and Jamal Charles in the backfield. The resurgence of Dwayne Bowe has given the Chiefs a deep threat and Tony Moeaki is a consistent receiver in the short game. This will be a much better game than first expected and the Bills will put up big numbers again. However the lack of a run game will be their down fall. Chiefs win 28-24.

Jaguars @ Cowboys: The Cowboys have been dreadfully awful this year as they crawl out of a Monday night beating served up by the Giants with their tails between their legs. “The Injury Bowl” will be a very interesting to watch on Sunday. Will Maurice Jones-Drew return to form? Will the Cowboys recover from loosing their franchise quarterback? Will the Boys’ defense play better this week? Jon Kitna takes over as quarterback in Dallas and with a 1-5 record and no playoffs in sight look for Felix Jones and Dez Bryant to get more attention in the offense as they are considered the future of the team. MJD will need to be big in the passing game for the Jaguars to have any chance. Kitna plays well in his first start since 2008, Cowboys win 17-10

Panthers @ Rams: Matt Moore came out like a new man on Sunday against the 49ers, throwing for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns. Deangelo Williams is dealing with a foot strain and shouldn’t play to well this week. Steven Jackson will continue to shine despite finger surgery and Sam Bradford should have a decent day despite the most likely throwing at least one interception. The Panthers just got their first win and with Steve Smith opening things up I think they can continue to put a nice streak together. Inconsistencies in the running game and a defense that makes the occasional stop means one thing…John Kasay will be the Panthers savior for yet another year.  Panthers win a good one 24-21.

Dolphins @ Bengals: Miami is coming off a tough one-point loss to the Steelers that left a pretty big wound on their season. The Bengals played their best offensive game of the year and still lost. Carson Palmer is by no means back on track and will struggle to put two good games together. Terrell Owens has reemerged as a fantasy stud and will continue to do so as no team can afford to double cover him or Chad Ochocinco. Chad Henne is having a career year and Davone Bess has benefited more than anyone from the Brandon Marshall trade. If Ronnie Brown can put a good game together the Bengals have no chance of winning. The Bengals gave up 201 yards to Roddy White and Marshall may just have the same success. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Dolphins will be eager to take their anger out on someone. Dolphins win 27-20

Redskins @ Lions: Matthew Stafford makes his return to the field against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Although if last week was any indication of how the defense will play from now on, I would avoid DeAngelo Hall at all costs. Ryan Torain had a good week last week and will continue to perform well against a weak run defense. Santana Moss will continue his solid production and should get close to the 100 yard mark. Jahvid Best is coming off well needed rest as he recovers from a toe injury. Expect an uptick in his production going forward but not this week. Calvin Johnson and Tony Scheffler

Broncos @ 49ers: Coming off of two rough losses in there own respect, these teams look to right the ship…advantage Broncos. Even “the Greatest Show on Turf” struggled at times, as Kyle Orton and the Broncos did against the Raiders on Sunday. Orton will turn things around starting with good protection up front. Knowshown Moreno will transition back to being the top 10 back he can be and will give respectable numbers this week. Frank Gore will have a monstrous game as the lack of a quarterback as well as the lack of a worthy defensive opponent equal huge numbers for an elite back. However it won’t be enough to match the high powered offense of the Broncos. Denver wins, 27-14.

Packers @ Jets: Mark Sanchez has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, throwing only 2 interceptions through the first 6 games. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have shown amazing resilience in the face of season-changing injuries on both sides of the ball. While the Packers offense has been clicking they are in for a tough test come Sunday. The Jets will shut down any attempt at a run game so don’t expect a lot from Brandon Jackson, and with two of the best cover-corners in the game Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are in for a long day. Ladanian Tomlinson will find just enough room to be productive and Braylon Edwards will continue to have a career year. Sanchez said after the Jets’ week 1 loss to the Raven, “there’s nothing wrong with going 15-1.” Approaching the midway point, that seems to be more a possibility than ever. Jets win 31-21

Titans @ Chargers: Tennessee is playing better defense than anyone right now and I don’t think that is going to change any time soon. They rush the passer very well and effectively stop the run, which won’t be to hard against the Chargers. The Rams sacked Phillip Rivers 7 times two weeks ago and Ryan Matthews has yet to find his legs. Chris Johnson had a bad week last week so keeping with his usual trend he should have a monster game that effectively destroys a fantasy win for someone (that being me). Whether Kerry Collins or Vince Young are at the helm is irrelevant because both will manage the game well and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Kenny Britt won’t have another 40 point day but he will put up solid numbers. Rivers will rely strongly on his tight end fantasy stud, Antonio Gates. The Chargers are spiraling out of control and unless their receiving corp. gets healthy that won’t change. Titans are the better team, they win 28-21. 

Buccaneers @ Cardinals: If you hadn’t watched football this season I’ll put this one in perspective for you: take the Cardinals team and the Bucs team from last year and switch their uniforms and that’s what you get in 2010. These two teams have done a complete 180 from where they were this time last year. Josh Freeman has been as confident in the pocket as any signal-caller and having a consistent threat in Mike Williams has made life a lot easier. Cadillac Williams had a decent day last week but the running game hasn’t been there for the Bucs this year. Look for LaGarrett Blount to get more touches this week after his 11 carry, 75 yards performance from last week. The Cardinals are struggling to get their offense going and they will rely on Beanie Wells to get things going on the ground. Wells is in store for a minimum 25 carries as the Cardinals need to hold onto the ball and limit mistakes to have a chance. The Cardinals do just that, but it’s still not enough. Bucs win, 17-16

Vikings @ Patriots: Oh, the Vikings…remember when it was a good idea to bet on the Vikings to get to the Super Bowl? Remember when Brett Favre was a great idea as a fantasy starter? Remember when Randy Moss caught 8 passes a game for 100 yards and a touchdown? Well that’s over, as Favre is dealing with stress fractures in his ankle and the Vikings are in jeopardy of having one of their worst seasons in franchise history. Tom Brady continues to be Tom Brady and the allure of this game is washed away with every less-than-impressive game for the Vikes. Deon Branch and Aaron Hernandez will have solid days, but it’s hard to pinpoint anyone on the Patriots worthy of starting consideration outside of Brady. Percy Harvin will have a good day and I hope Tavaris Jackson, who I think could really improve the Vikings offense with his versatility, puts Favre out of his misery. Patriots win 20-10.

Seahawks @ Raiders: Again, what a difference a year makes. Marshawn Lynch has ingrained himself in the offense as the starting back and will continue to improve over the next few weeks. Although, you can’t count on him to score as the Hawks seem to hurt themselves with ineffective play and penalties in the redzone. Numerous times last week were the Hawks with the 10 yard line and finished with a field goal because of these issues. Mike Williams will continue to produce as he has become the best option for Matt Hasselback. Darren McFadden is on his way to his best season since college and it is way overdue. If Jason Campbell can put together another good game the Raiders can pull it out. The Seahawks have the second-ranked run defense in the league so Campbell will need to be effective. I think this will be a great game, possibly ending in overtime. These teams are a lot alike and in the end it’s a tough call. Seahawks win 20-17.

Steelers @ Saints: Goliath was bound to fall hard eventually, and maybe it was just what he needed. The Saints will get Reggie Bush back this week which means good things for the offense. I don’t think Bush will do anything worth noting this week but he will open the offense up for Drew Brees. Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will need to step it up against the tough Pittsburgh defense. Rashard Mendenhall will find more running room this week as the Saints are giving up over 100 rushing yards a game. Look for Heath Miller to put up adequate numbers and Mike Wallace to break off a big play. Steelers win with defense 26-14

(MNF) Texans @ Colts: This will be a great rivalry for years to come and what better way to showcase it than on Monday Night Football. “The Tail of Two Offenses…without Any Defense” comes to you live Monday night when Peyton Manning carves up the Texans “defense” and Arian Foster runs right down the Colts’ throat. Manning will spread it out but Pierre Garcon win be the victor for the Colts. I love the Texans…on offense. They have a lot of fire power but defensively can’t stop anyone, which will make life hard for Foster in the ladder weeks of the season. Either way, it’s extremely hard to beat Peyton Manning twice in one year. Colts pull out the win, 34-28

Thank You Brett Favre...

Despite being the weaker team Sunday I managed to get my sixth win of the season and retain sole possession of the #1 spot in my fantasy league. I would like to thank Brett Favre for using up the last 4 minutes of the game last night without scoring or giving Aaron Rodgers another chance. I would also like to thank Jason Curts for his unfortunate judgment call. My poor decisions of leaving Seattle's Mike Williams and Arizona's Beanie Wells on the bench cost me about 20 points. However my opponent saw that mistake and raised me Kenny Britt's 225 yard, 3 touchdown perfomance from the bench. Had he played Britt I would have lost by up to 35 points, but he didn't and I won by less than 3. While hindsight is a bitch this is the great (and humbling) part of fantasy football- anything can happen. We don't know who will blow it and who will blow up; we just make a judgment call based on or limited information and do the best we can. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't, but there are a few things I've learned this year.

First, Roddy White is a beast. Yeah, it's true Britt had a great game and yeah, Dwayne Bowe has had a few good games but White is easily the most consistent wideout in the NFL. Through 7 games he's only had one game in which he didn't have either 100 yards or a touchdown (and that happens to be the only game I've lost). He is averaging 14.96 fantasy points per game and continues to be the most targeted receiver in the league. He will continue to shine and if you can get him on your team find a way to make it happen.

Second, your bench can ruin you. How many times have you been trying to decide between two guys? Maybe you have a top player on a bye and need to replace him with one of two bench players and can't decide. You keep switching back and forth and after the game the guy you started got you 3 points while the one still on the bench could have given you 12.  My conclusion-trade as many bench players as possible for legitimate starters. We're at the half-way point of the season and by now the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. There is bound to be that one team without any depth and he could use 3 of your "potential players" in exchange for a star. The less options you have the easier it will be to make a decision. Get 7 must start players and leave the rest to ride the bench after week 10.

Third, I've learned to trust my instincts. Sometimes we over think things to much or listen to what other people say instead of how we feel. I've found that when I follow my gut, more often than not I end up okay. Not that this is coming from experience or anything, but I really wish I would have started Mike Williams instead of Robert Meachem.

It's been a wild year in the NFL and it's sure to continue so buckle up. Make your key trades and get ready for playoff. Bye weeks are over after week 10 and the trade deadline is November 26th. After that, the best group of 7 will win the league. Good luck.

The Good, the Bad & the Benched

Who’s In…Who’s Out

With the Lions, Texans, Colts, and Jets all on bye weeks there are a lot of superstars of the Fantasy world who need to be replaced for a week. You need someone who is good enough to play, but expendable enough to replace or drop. If your looking for that diamond in the rough who will take you to the playoffs…sorry, Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster are probably already taken. But there’s no reason you can’t find a solid one-week-wonder to get you a win the week you thought you would loose because Foster or LT are out. Check the sleepers for your answers, and don’t forget about your bench either. You picked ‘em, have a little faith.

Who’s In:

Quarterback:

-Matt Ryan (v. Bengals): I know he hasn’t been very consistent lately and last week was really rough but Ryan has the potential to be great. He has great weapons in Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez and the return of Michael Jenkins will really stretch the field, but the key is getting Michael Turner going early. The Bengals are struggling and Ryan will put up adequate numbers in place of your regular starter if Schaub or Manning are stuck on the bench this week.

-Sam Bradford (@ Bucs): Again, Bradford’s greatest asset is his running game. If Steven Jackson gets off to a good start, which he will, Bradford will have a solid day against a Tampa Bay defense that is slumping. Loosing #1 receiver Mark Clayton certainly makes life a little harder but the return of Laurent Robinson and the consistent play of Danny Amendola will shine through in Tampa. The Rams’ signal-caller is good for at least 180 yards and 1-2 touchdowns. An adequate bye-week replacement.

-Kyle Orton (v. Raiders): The leader of the best passing offense in the NFL needs no introduction. Orton is averaging a little over 323 yards and 3 touchdowns per game, easily one of the best in the league. Not to mention his top receiver, Brandon Lloyd leads the NFL in receiving. The Broncos’ lack of a good run game leaves them no choice but to air it out. They have so many weapons and Orton is up against a Raiders defense that is improving but isn’t good enough to slow him down.

-Sleeper- Matt Hasselback (v. Cardinals): There are three reasons why I believe in Matt Hasselback this week. One: he’s healthy for the first time in 3 years; two: The addition of Marshawn Lynch makes the Seahawks backfield a major threat to opposing defenses; and third: He’s up against the lowly Cardinals defense in a huge division matchup. Not only to I believe in Hasselback this week but through the rest of the year I believe he will have fewer mistakes and more touchdowns.

Running Back:

-Steven Jackson (@ Bucs): Jackson needs only 32 yards to become the franchise’s all-time leading rusher. He has looked very strong in his last 3 outings and is much healthier than he was the last two seasons. The Buccaneers’ defense is weak against the run this year and Jackson will go for at least 110 yards. He may not get in the end zone but he will give you a solid day.

-Marshawn Lynch (v. Cardinals): Marshawn Lynch had a decent outing in his first game with his new team getting 17 carries and a touchdown. This week he gets the porous defense of the Arizona Cardinals and he will see plenty of carries as Pete Carroll serves up a heavy dose of Lynch and Justin Forsett to get the game going. He may not get huge yardage, but he is the teams workhorse and will get the red zone opportunities to score.

-Jamal Charles (v. Jaguars): I know this one isn’t a big shock or anything so I’m upping the ante a little bit. Remember how in week one Arian Foster went for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns? How about the next week when Jahvid Best went off for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns? I do…I had them both on my team and it was a very good two weeks. My prediction is Jamal Charles will have similar good fortune against a one of the worst teams in the NFL (just barely ahead of the Bills and the Panthers). While it won’t be as huge because Todd Haley insists on using Thomas Jones just as much, but I expect 185 yards and 2 touchdowns out of Charles this week.

-Sleeper Alert- Chris Ivory (v. Browns): I don’t know if you saw this kid run last week but let me tell you, 175 yards from scrimmage doesn’t do justice to the performance he put on last week. Ivory is a very tough extremely elusive runner who has jumped right into his role head first and ready to attack. Last week it was Tampa Bay and now, with an even better matchup against the Browns he should continue to shine in the absence of Pierre Thomas and the sorely missed Reggie Bush. Look for Ivory to get in the end zone to go along with another 100 yard game.

Wide Receiver:

-Michael Crabtree (@ Panthers): You all know of my love for the Carolina Panthers but love hurts sometime. This week…love will continue to suck as Crabtree continues his assent to fantasy relevance. Crabtree has put up at least 50 yards in the last three weeks (including a 100 yard outing against Philly in week 5), and has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two games. The 49ers are actively trying to get him more involved in the offense which is great news for his owners. A solid matchup and love from the coaches equal one thing…big game for Crabtree.

-Robert Meachem (v. Browns): If it feels like I’m picking on the same teams it’s because I am. Like I said at the beginning, we’re playing the matchups this week. Meachem has looked great the last two weeks outshining Marques Colston and Lance Moore each game. He seems to be completely recovered from his knee issues and has caught a touchdown each of the last two games. A great matchup against the Browns makes him a solid starter and he’s probably available on most waiver wires.

-Mike Williams (v. Cardinals): Williams broke out last week with 123 yards, almost equaling his production for the year. While Deon Butler caught the touchdown pass Williams was the one who saw the uptick in attention from his quarterback. Williams will continue to get thrown to and create big yardage opportunities in space. Look for another solid week for Mike Williams, the Seattle one.

-Sleeper Alert- Patrick Crayton (v. Patriots): The former disgruntled Cowboys receiver has had a rough go of it the last few years. From whinning on the second season of “Hard Knocks” with the Cowboys to riding the bench with San Diego it has been tough to be Patrick Crayton. But now is his time to shine with injuries building up for the Chargers. Malcolm Floyd is likely out for Sunday’s game and Antonio Gates is not 100%. Crayton will be in line for a big game coming off of a 117 yard performance last week.

Tight End:

-Brent Celek (@ Titans): The only reason Celek is on this list is due to injuries. The Titans have a great defense and they will probably shut him down. But Desean Jackson is out with a concussion and Leasean McCoy is battling broken ribs so it is possible that with the Titans rushing Kevin Kolb Celek could see a lot of looks in the short game.

-Heath Miller (@ Dolphins): Heath Miller was expected to have a great year but struggled in the absence of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Now that Big Ben is back Miller had his most productive game with 50 yards and a touchdown. He will continue to get enough passes to be productive and will always get looks in the red zone making him a good bet to score.

-Kellen Winslow (v. Rams): Winslow hasn’t been that great this year battling injuries and decent defenses. I expect Winslow to come out this week and create opportunities in the middle of the field. The Rams will focus their attention on stopping the deep threat of Mike Williams leaving space for Winslow to get to work. When Winslow plays well he usually scores. He’s a decent bye week replacement for Dustin Keller or Dallas Clark.

-Sleeper Alert- Ben Watson (v. Saints): Last week against a stingy Steelers defense Watson went for 88 yards and a touchdown. This week, his chances of success are even better as he goes up against a floundering Saints defense with a depleted receiving corp. Watson has quickly become the most reliable receiver on the Browns and if rookie Colt McCoy has to start again he will lean on his new found security blanket to help him limit mistakes.

-Kicker of the Week: Matt Prater (v. Raiders): Good offensive team means plenty of opportunities to put it through the uprights.

-Defense of the Week: Seattle Seahawks: They will rush Max Hall into poor judgment…not to mention that guy they have returning kicks.

Who’s Out

Quarterback:

-Tony Romo (v. Giants): It’s simple; the Cowboys are struggling to limit mistakes and penalties and the Giants are playing the best football they’ve played since winning the Super Bowl. The Giants pass rush is too strong to not make him uncomfortable. I’m not saying he won’t play well, I’m just saying he will make more mistakes than normal.

-Josh Freeman (v. Rams): Josh Freeman has played pretty well considering the caliber of team he’s on but the lack of a run game and few offensive threats make it difficult to be successful. I’m not sure about this one because I think he could have a great game but the Rams sacked Phillip Rivers 7 times last week and held him to 249 yards with only 1 touchdown and forced an interception for his worst fantasy performance of the year. Freeman will be forced into mistakes that will cost his team a win.

-Chad Henne (v. Steelers): No real twist to this one, the poor guy is going up against the best defense in the game. The Steelers are allowing a league low 12 points per game and have at least a sack, a fumble recovery, and an interception in each of their first 5 games. Henne has some decent weapons but this will easily be his toughest test yet. Steelers hold the Fins to 13 points and Henne to 150 yards.

-Watch Out- Kevin Kolb (@ Titans): Kevin Kolb has looked deceptively good the last two weeks, averaging 260 yards and a touchdown over the last 3 games. However it seems as though the buck stops on Sunday as he takes on the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been solid against the pass this year and have a knack for making quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket. And it really doesn’t help when your top receiver is out with a head injury. Temper your expectations of Kolb this week as he won’t meet your regular standards.

Running Back:

-Ronnie Brown (v. Steelers): Brown hasn’t been bad this year but he definitely hasn’t been a good pick either. His best game out of the last three topped out at 75 yards and he’s only crossed the goal line once this year. Now he has to go up against the Steelers and his inability to get things going on the ground will snowball into all sorts of problems for the Miami offense. Maybe he should ask Lebron for some help.

-Ryan Torain (@ Bears): Chances are you probably already picked him up off waivers and you’re excited about putting him in to replace Arian Foster this week. Again, temper your expectations as he goes up against a very good Chicago defensive front. McNabb is coming to his hometown and I expect him to air it out a little more than normal. Also I would be concerned about Torain’s durability for the remainder of the season as he is already having knee issues. If you have to start him it go ahead, it won’t be horrible; I just don’t see him going off again this week. I’m just saying, lower your expectations and maybe try to trade him while his value is high.

-Fred Jackson (@ Ravens): I know you’re all excited that you got him off the waiver wire and you’re jacked up after the Marshawn Lynch trade, but you would have to be an idiot of elephantine proportions to start him this week…against the Ravens…in Baltimore. I really think that’s all I need to say.

-Watch Out-Felix Jones (v. Giants): Yes it is a good thing the Cowboys are finally using him as more than a third down back and yes it’s good that he has played pretty well the last two weeks. But no, it is not a good idea to start him, unless you absolutely have to. Jones is up against a resurgent Giants defense that has a chance to put the final nail in the Cowboys (and possibly Wade Phillips) coffin. If you’re hesitant to start him it’s for good reason. Keep him reserved if you have another option.

Wide Receiver:

-Brandon Marshall (v. Steelers): I might have said this before, but I don’t think Marshall will have a bad game I just think he won’t produce what you expect out of a receiver like him. For Marshall to have a good game his quarterback must first have a good game and I don’t believe that will happen. I expect a 70-80 yards day at best.

-Santana Moss (@ Bears): Moss only has one touchdown through the first six games of the 2010 season, and as one of the most targeted wideouts in the league that’s not saying a whole lot. Moss and the Redskins will now face a strong Chicago Bears defense that has been solid in their efforts to shut down opposing receivers. Look out for a 50 yard stat line Sunday.

-Mike Sims-Walker (@ Chiefs): Sorry Mike, but I am officially benching Sims-Walker until further notice. Not only is he going up against a very good Chiefs defense this Sunday but both viable starting quarterbacks are injured and the Jags have even resorted to bringing in Todd Bouman and Patrick Ramsay for “insurance” at the position. It is sad days in Jacksonville when Todd Bouman is your best option come Sunday and it’s even worse for Mike Sims-Walker who is already taking a back seat to Mike Thomas.

-Watch Out-Jeremy Maclin (@ Titans): At first glance he looks like a great start; Desean Jackson is out for the game and last week he finished with 159 yards and 2 touchdown catches. But this week he is taking on a vicious Tennessee Titans defense as the only consistent threat through the air for them to stop. Brent Celek will probably have a lot of room because the Titans will do two things come Sunday: rush the pass and blanket Maclin.

Tight End:

-Zach Miller (@ Broncos): Miller has been a pretty solid play this year and his matchup is good enough to warrant a start. But there is one big problem…ya know, that glaring issue right behind the center? The Raiders quarterback situation is worse than the Panthers right now and this will directly affect Miller’s performance come Sunday. Jason Campbell made some of the worst decisions at the end of a game that I’ve ever seen last week. In a game they could have easily won he gives the game away on two interceptions on back to back drives. Knowing they could very easily be sitting at 3-3 instead of a sub-par 2-4, I expect Tom Cable to stick to what the Raiders could do best if he lets them…RUN THE BALL! Two great backs equals time of possession and less turnovers.

-Greg Olsen (v. Raiders): This is another one I can’t quite put a finger on. But it’s simple; Olsen has been held without a catch two games in a row. By now you probably have a second option so use him until Olsen gives you a reason to play him again. And don’t take the Raider hard-hitting defense for granted, they’re better than you think.

-Todd Heap (v. Bills): After the only hit of the weekend that did look malicious and intentional, I’m not even sure Heap will play. If he does, he certainly won’t be 100%. Keep him on your bench and see how he recovers from the head shot.

-Watch Out- Antonio Gates (v. Patriots): Same reason…you don’t want to start him have him catch two passes for 20 yards just to get tackled and roll his ankle right out of the rest of the game. Gates did not practice on Wednesday but is still listed as day-to-day. My prediction is he will be in the line-up, but more to open things up for the rest of the offense. He will probably be replaced on downs when he’s expected to hold blocking responsibility.

-Kicker Sit of the Week: John Kasay (v. 49ers): The Panthers are dead last in points per game so it makes it very hard for Kasay to be a viable kicker option even as a bye week replacement.

-Defensive Sit of the Week: Chargers (v. Patriots): If I had to choose one word to describe the Chargers it would be inconsistent, especially on defense. In week 4 they scored 28 fantasy points recording 9 sacks, 3 turnovers, and a touchdown. Over the last two weeks they are giving up an average of 24.5 points to opposing offenses and have only 3 fantasy points per game. With the Patriots on the bill for this week they look like they’re headed for another bad week.

Week 7 Pick 'em

Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner

Well, it was by no means a good weekend, but I didn’t have a loosing record this week, which I guess kind of makes up for me getting my ask kicked by a team that hadn’t won a game to that point. After Monday night’s beat down on behalf of the Tennessee Titans I finished 7-7 missing some tough games like the Pats over the Ravens and Texans over Chiefs. But the ones that really got me were the games I felt most confident about, like the Chargers going down to the Rams and the Raiders loosing to the Niners. Oh well, you can’t win them all but it sure would be cool. This week features a lot of teams at the crossroads of their season. A win or a loss can be the difference of making the playoffs or watching them at Applebee’s. I’m expecting some really great games but not too many upsets as we head towards the half way point of the season. Wow, can you believe it’s almost half way over.

Browns @ Saints: It’s not an easy few weeks to be a rookie, third-string quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. Colt McCoy started his NFL career up against the best defense in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers and now he has to face a historically opportunistic team in the Saints. Not only is it another tough matchup but Josh Cribbs and Mohammed Massoquois both sustained head injuries last weekend and may not be eligible for the game. If they can’t play expect the Browns to go with a heavy dose of workhorse Peyton Hillis sprinkled with a dash of Mike Bell. The ground game is much safer for them against the Saints but New Orleans will still create opportunities to change the game. Drew Brees is always a must start but I’m going to dub Robert Meachem his favorite receiver for the rest of the year. Not just because he is on my team and I need him to play well, but the last two weeks he has scored a touchdown and averaged 12.4 fantasy points, better than Randy Moss and about the same as Roddy White. Also watch out for Chris Ivory as he will have another good game against a weak defense. Saints win, 28-10.

Steelers @ Dolphins: The Dolphins are one of those enigma teams that I can’t quite figure out. Like the Texans or Bears they seem to be improving to the point of winning their division but lapses in judgment and poor play at times cost them key wins. They pulled out a good one against a depleted Packers team last week but I don’t believe they can do that against the Steelers. Pittsburgh does look like the Super Bowl team from two years ago and they just got Ben Roethlisberger back. The Dolphins have a decent rush and will try to pressure Big Ben into making mistakes. Watch for Ben to get the ball out of his hand early to Heath Miller to avoid sacks. Rashard Mendenhall is playing very well and will continue the same trend this week. For the Fins, look for Davone Bess to have a good game as the Steelers will surely attempt to contain Brandon Marshall. While this will be a good defenses match we will be surprised by the offense as well. Steelers win 20-14

Redskins @ Bears: Neither of these teams has shown a solid identity so far this season. You have the Reskins: high expectations with a hall-of-fame additions at quarterback and head coach and young, solid defensive players like Brian Orakpo. But so far this year the Skins are one of the worst (oh wait, the worst) defenses in the league. They are still adjusting to a new system and offensively they’re experiencing some of the same growing pains. But Chicago is having some pains of their own. While Jay Cutler continues to get beat up in the pocket, the Bears look a little uncomfortable atop the division. Against such a weak defense lets hope the Bears attempt to run a little more. Although it’s a long shot maybe Matt Forte will get at least half as many touches as Cutler throws. I'm not sold on either team at this point, but I think the growing pains are tougher in for the Redskins. They give up a ton of passing yards per game as they are ranked 31st in that category. Bears win 21-17

Bengals @ Falcons: My expectations of the Falcons had increased greatly over the last four weeks and I had a lot of faith in them until the crumbled on national television against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Matt Ryan has some of the best weapons in the league yet continues his inconsistent play. This will be an offensive game as Carson Palmer gets a little better off the bye week and T.O. continues to shine. Cedric Benson will work hard for his yardage and will struggle to get in the endzone. Roddy White should have a better game than last week’s 83 yard performance and the return of Michael Jenkins really opens things up for the offense. In the end, I believe the Falcons are a better team. Atlanta wins 23-14.

Eagles @ Titans: The Eagles will greatly miss Desean Jackson as he recovers from the hit that NFL leaders think is to dirty for a contact sport. I mean seriously, I know it was a big hit but that is football, quit breast feeding each other and let the boys play. Anyway, Brent Celek should step up big for Philly as Kevin KolbChris Johnson seems to be hitting his stride and will unleash an assault on the Eagles. Kerry Collins will manage the game well and limit mistakes and sacks. These are two very good teams and I think the Eagles are moving in the right direction. But the Titans are a real contenders and I think they pull it out. Titans win 28-17.

49ers @ Panthers: Congratulations San Francisco, you’re about to experience your first winning streak of the year. It’s safer to bet the Panthers will loose every game this year than to bet they will at least win one. I am a huge Panthers fan and I still can admit the truth; that the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL this year (worse than the Lions or even the Bills). Frank Gore will have a field day and Michael Crabtree will continue to get on track with another TD catch. Matt Moore is back at the helm for Carolina and this culture of switching back and forth is detrimental to a teams chemistry, and it will show come Sunday. Niners win 24-10

Rams @ Bucs: These are two of the most improved teams in the NFL through six weeks. I have been impressed with the Rams all season, particularly the play of rookie Sam Bradford. Steven Jackson is looking like his old self again running well and even getting in the end zone. Tampa Bay will struggle a bit offensively as they have lost all the depth in their back field to injuries. Cadillac Williams is not running well and Earnest Graham isn’t getting enough touches. Mike Williams will play well and is the only Bucs’ players worth starting consideration. I think the Rams defense will play well again causing a few key mistakes for Tampa Bay’s offense. Rams win 17-10

Bills @ Ravens: The Ravens have had struggles against playoff contenders but play well against the lower level teams. The Bills have improved throughout the year and Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in each of the last three games. Look for Steve Johnson nice catches when the Bills run three-wide sets. He is benefiting greatly from his demotion to the #3 receiver. In the end, Joe Flacco is a better quarterback, Ray Rice and company a better backfield, Anquan Boldin the best receiver on the field and the Ravens certainly have the better defense. Too much for the Bills, although they will score more than expected. Ravens win 31-24

Jaguars @ Chiefs: This was has big rushing yards written all over it. Although their defense isn’t elite, Rashean Mathis is enough to deter Matt Cassel from throwing his way often. However, they Chiefs have the best rushing attack in the NFL with the one-two punch of Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones. The will have very good games this week and Jamal Charles will break 100 yards and go for at least one touchdown. On the other side, Maurice Jones-Drew will have to fight for his yards against a very tough defense. MJD will cross the goal line but don’t expect huge yards from him, although the Chiefs did give up some key runs to Arian Foster last week. The Jaguars are missing two of the key ingredients for winning football games in the NFL: defense and a quarterback. Chiefs win to avoid a 3-game loosing streak, 31-20

Cardinals @ Seahawks: The Cardinals are coming off a well-needed bye and the Seahawks are coming off a big win against Chicago. The Cardinals look nothing like the team they went to the Super Bowl with 2 years ago as their defense has struggled against the pass and Kurt Warner is no where in sight. In Seattle there’s a revival of sorts happening with Pete Carroll changing the culture of that team. Matt Hasselback makes a lot of mistakes but he has the potential to be an elite signal-caller again. The addition of Marshawn Lynch gave their backfield new life last week and he and Justin Forsett will continue to be a great duo against Arizona. Mike Williams had a huge game last week but it’s Deon Butler who will have his time to shine. Seattle’s defense will make some key stops and don’t forget about Leon Washington on special teams. Seahawks put the nail in the Cardinals seasonal coffin, 24-10.

Raiders @ Broncos: This would have been a really good game if it was played about two weeks ago. The Raiders were looking very solid with Gradkowski at quarterback and the defense was playing excellent. But now they face the most effective passing attack in the NFL with nobody to help them keep pace if Denver gets ahead. The Raiders coaching staff refuses to us their two very good backs more and instead try to make Darius Heyward-Bay not look like the worst draft pick of this decade (sorry, Ryan Leaf was last decade). Kyle Orton should have a very good day going for at least 200 yards and 2 touchdowns given ample opportunities to Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney. The Broncos have too many weapons, Denver wins 24-13.

Patriots @ Chargers: What has happened to the San Diego Chargers? The defense hasn’t been able to make the big stop and the offense hasn’t been able to make the big play. Which is bad because they are seemingly always in a tight game regardless of the opponent. The Patriots are playing well above expectation and the emergence of such offensive threats as Aaron Hernandez, Danny Woodhead and Brandon Tate are making Tom Brady’s life a lot easier. Don’t expect much out of “the Law Firm” BenJarvis Green-Ellis as the Chargers will do well against the rushing attack. If you have Deon Branch get him in your starting lineup as he hasn’t lost a step with Brady and looks rejuvenated. Phillip Rivers will rebound from his worst game of the year and put up his usual numbers but he’ll have to work harder as Malcolm Floyd will likely be out and Antonio Gates isn’t 100%. Patrick Crayton should be a great sleeper pick this week. The Chargers will continue to struggle this week and the game will look eerily similar to the Pats game against the Dolphins a few weeks ago. Patriots win 28-24.

Vikings @ Packers: Favre returns to Green Bay yet again but this time it doesn’t look so good. Amid a very public sex scandal and a slumping offense Brett Favre looks older (and creepier) than ever. The Packers are trying to recovering from a plethora of injuries as well as a two game skid. The Vikings got a solid win against the Cowboys last week but I’m afraid it stops there. Unless the defense can stop the high-powered attack of Aaron Rodgers they will not stand a chance. Adrian Peterson will have a big day going for over 100yards and a touchdown. Don’t expect a lot out of Randy Moss until he shows you something. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings should always get starting consideration, but with the absence of JerMichael Finley for the remainder of the season, their chances of success increase. These two teams were trendy Super Bowl picks in the preseason, and now the one with the better record will stand alone. Packers win 20-14.

Giants @ Cowboys (MNF): There’s nothing better than a great divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. This week the Giants take on the Cowboys in Dallas as the Boys are in desperate need of a win. The Cowboys have one of the most potent offenses in the league but penalties and careless mistakes have caused them to slump to 1-4. The Cowboys average 80 yards in penalties per game, tied for the worst in the league. At some point you have to point to the coach as the common denominator for a team’s problems. Sorry Wade but it’s true. The Giants are playing great defense and Osi Umenyora looks to be back to form. Both quarterbacks will spend more time on the ground then normal with both teams presenting a strong pass rush. Defense will rule this one, but Miles Austin and Hakeem Nicks are superstars of the game, and stars play great in big games. Watch out for Ahmad Bradshaw; he’s been playing well but the Dallas front is one of the best in the game and they will slow him down unless he can get outside. The Giants look like they have new life and the Cowboys seem to be on their last breath. My friends call it "the gift of desperation", and the Cowboys have it. I originally picked the Giants to win this one but I have to agree with everyone else that eventually the Cowboys have to stop shooting themselves in the foot and what better time than against a bitter division rival. What the hell...Cowboys win a close one in the fourth quarter 27-24

Predicting the Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable

As I had predicted, after a 5-0 start for the second consecutive year, team BamaMan is slowly crumbling before my eyes. I swear I feel like the Houston Texans- they started off really well and looked like a championship-caliber team and then…oh then, the demise began with a slowing of the run game followed by the worst game of the season for my starting quarterback, Phillip Rivers. Thank God I have Arian Foster because he was the only person on my team (besides the Steelers defense) that did anything on Sunday. But through it all I’ve learned two things: 1 Peyton Hillis is a man and he should never be benched and 2, anything can happen in the NFL.

If I told you before Sunday that Chris Ivory would accrue 175 scrimmage yards for the Saints would you believe me? If I told you the Rams would sack Phillip Rivers 7 times and force his worst game of the year would you believe that? Or how about this one-My 5-0 fantasy team would go down to “woop_ass”, that’s right…”woop_ass”; an 0-5 team that averages 76.3 points per game and only has Calvin Johnson to depend on (who by the way had his best game of the year and has been traded to me for Randy Moss).

This is what I love about football, ya know? I know I’m not the smartest guy in the room, pretty much never. I know that I make too many trades throughout the year and I know I rarely get my game picks right for Sunday. But it’s so much fun because it is so unpredictable. And that is true this year more than ever before.

I learned an important lesson this weekend though, and that’s to go with my gut. Trust my instincts. Because if I had I would have won by 8.94 points and moved on to Fantasy Football glory at 6-0. I had originally replaced Randy Moss (5.5 pts.) for Robert Meachem (13.10 pts.). I also had Heath Miller (11 pts.) over Tony Moeaki (2.1 pts.) before Sunday. However, it wasn’t meant to be and now I can only wait for the dismantling of my team to begin. It happens every year.

But really, what a great year for football. Sure there are no undefeated teams to talk about this year, but there isn’t a clear cut leader either. Four of the leagues divisions have at least two teams tied for first place, and another has the three teams tied for second. The records may not be as great as in the past, actually they’re quite pedestrian. But that is what makes it great, anybody can win this year. The Detroit Lions have been in every game this year, far better that their winless season of the past. The Chiefs are easily the most improved team in the NFL sitting atop their division.

And what about the bad: the Vikings and the Cowboys were Super Bowl hopefuls going into the season and now they are clawing for a chance to keep their quarterbacks on the field. The Saints, through an array of injuries, are struggling to keep pace with the elite teams of the league. Even the Colts haven’t looked the same as they continue to rely on the same team that won them a Super Bowl.

My first article referred to our ability as fantasy leaguers to see the players of the NFL in the way we were meant to see them, talented athletes. It seems as though, this year there are more talented athletes than ever before. Anyone, given the right opportunity under the right set of circumstances can blow up on our radar. One injury, one good matchup, or one well-placed bye week can turn a waiver pick up from a skeptical bench player, to a fantasy difference maker.

Who's In...Who's Out

The Good, the Bad and the Benched…

Injuries and trades can really change the landscape of a team, especially on offense. Defensively teams tend to have more depth, for good reason. The Steelers can bring Ike Taylor to the sideline and put in Anthony Madison for a few downs a be okay. But when Matt Flynn has to start in place of Aaron Rodgers, or when the Panthers loose Steve Smith and pick up the pieces with David Clowney, you can expect a significant drop off in production (well, maybe…if the Panthers signal-callers could the broad side of a barn). That is why fantasy football is so much fun, anything can happen. You have to piece together what you think could be a winning team and when something goes wrong, make the adjustment and play with what ya got. It’s what any good coach in the NFL goes through on a daily basis.

This Sunday has brought us some unique situations and opportunities have risen for previously fantasy-irrelevant guys to stake their claim on the fantasy world. I have been posting my start/sit list after NFL.com but I want to make it clear that I am not using their picks to write this. I do most of my writing on Tuesday because it’s my day off but I don’t post until Thursday for schedule reasons. This week I am making a conscious effort to not use anyone that is on Michael Fabiano’s list.

Starts of the Week:

QB: Phillip Rivers

RB: Rashard Mendenhall

RB: Chris Johnson

WR: Hakeem Nicks

WR: Brandon Marshall

FLEX: Matt Forte

TE: Antonio Gates

K: Ryan Succop

D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers

Who’s In:

Quarterback:

-          Matt Ryan (@ Philly): Matt Ryan has been in command of the Falcons offense and playing with great confidence through the first 5 weeks. Outside of last week Ryan has thrown for at least 225 yards and a touchdown in each game. He had a solid run game to open things up and with Roddy White on the receiving end of a majority of his passes he will continue to have great success this week. Start him.

-          Sam Bradford (v. Chargers): At first glance this looks like a tough matchup for Bradford. But looking at what the Charger’s defense has done will show a different story. Even the Raiders in their increasingly unstable quarterback situation where able to put up almost 200 yards and throw a touchdown. I don’t think this will be a huge week for Bradford but if your regular signal-caller is on a bye he will get you decent numbers.

-          Chad Henne (@ Packers): Henne is coming off a bye week and his team is still hurting from the beat down they took against New England two weeks ago. He has a good receiving core led by Brandon Marshall and the Packers defense has been a major disappointment this year. Henne should produce solid starting numbers this week.

-          Sleeper- Ben Roethlisberger (v. Browns): The only reason he is a sleeper this week is because it’s his first game back with the team. Big Ben is a very sly, elusive quarterback with great size and vision. You can’t ask for much more but the Steelers faithful will. He will control the game and won’t make any mistakes. Not to mention he has a great matchup against the Brown. If you have him, start him.

Running Back:

-Arian Foster (v. Chiefs): Foster struggled last Sunday against a tough Giants defense, but turnovers and playing from behind forced the Texans to air it out for most of the game. This week will be a shoot out but if the Texans can let Foster get going this should be a very productive game for him. If the Texans’ special teams can slow down the Chiefs he will be in for a good day.

-Ryan Matthews (v. Rams): It has been a rough start for Matthews in his rookie year but San Diego is standing behind their draft pick. Norv Turner says Matthews is their starting running back and when he is healthy he will be a big asset to the team. This could be the week he finds his stride as he takes on the porous Rams run defense.

-Michael Bush (@ 49ers): I know I said I wouldn’t use the same guys Fabiano did but this one is just too easy. Bush played great (and helped me when my game) last Sunday. While filling in for injured Darren McFadden, Bush went for 135 yards and the winning touchdown against the Chargers. While McFadden is scheduled to play he isn’t 100%. Look for Bush to take the lion’s share of the workload and if he produces I can see Tom Cable resting McFadden if he isn’t needed.

-Steven Jackson (v. Chargers): Jackson hasn’t had a huge year but he is getting decent yardage and is good for at least 10 points a game. The Chargers allowed decent yardage to Bush last week and Jackson has the make up to do the same. I also look to Jackson to get into the endzone from short yardage this week.

Wide Receiver:

-Malcolm Floyd (@ Rams):  Last week Floyd went for 213 yards and a touchdown, by far his best game yet. The Chargers have a real MVP candidate in Phillip Rivers and have no problem letting him air it out 45 times a game. Floyd is his most reliable option so we can expect his production to continue. The Rams gave up 44 points to Detroit last week, none of which were scored on the ground. The good matchup combined with a great quarterback make Floyd a great play.

-Michael Crabtree (v. Raiders): For the most part Crabtree has been a huge disappointment in the fantasy realm this year. However, last week was a good indicator of things to come for him as he went for 105 yards and a touchdown. The offense is trying to get him more involved and while it may be tough against an improved Raiders defense I expect his good fortune to continue this weekend.

-Kenny Britt (@ Jaguars): After a slow start and an extended stay in Coach Fisher’s dog house, Britt is emerging as a viable fantasy option. The Titans’ wideout has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last three games and his receptions and yards have been on the rise. Going up against a suspect Jaguars defense that has to respect the run Britt should have his best outing yet. He is a solid play at the WR2 spot.

-Sleeper- Dwayne Bowe (@ Texans): Nobody is in need of a solid game that Dwayne Bowe (well, except for possibly Mike Singletary or Wade Phillips). Bowe had been a lock to be drafted in most fantasy leagues in the past. Now he is available in over half the leagues on NFL.com. Bowe’s production has been on the rise and this could be the week he breaks out for the Chiefs. I still look at him as a long shot- it’s my “what have you done for me lately” mentality- but he is going up against the 2^nd worst team against the pass in the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receiver. If there was any time to give Dwayne “Mr. Dropsies” Bowe a chance, this would be it.

Tight End:

-Vernon Davis (v. Raiders): This is a desperation call on behalf of the 49ers. Davis is the most talented, biggest, and most athletic person in a Niners’ uniform and the bottom line is he must be utilized more for them to win. Last week’s 104-yard, 1 touchdown performance was by far his best game of the season and the more Alex Smith gets him the ball in space the better off they will be. Oakland has a decent defense but look for Davis to get to the middle of the field and find space to work with. He will at least have another touchdown this week.

-Dallas Clark (@ Redskins): It’s been a rough go for Clark owners so far this year but things are about to change. I’m not saying it has been a bad year but by Clark’s standards things have not been the same. With the Colts defense struggling to give Peyton Manning some breathing room look for Indy to attempt to slow the game down with long methodic drives using the run game and short in routes giving Dallas Clark more opportunities on second and third down. Expect decent yardage and reception with a touchdown to top it off.

-Tony Moeaki (@ Texans): I’m not trying to pick on the Texans’ defense…they’re just making it a little too easy. Moeaki is quickly becoming Matt Cassel’s most reliable option in the air and is not playing like a rookie tight end. I expect around 60 yards with a touchdown to boot.

-Sleeper- Heath Miller (v. Browns): Nobody is more excited about Big Ben’s return than this guy. Miller has struggled through the first 5 weeks, but so have the rest of the Steelers passing game. Last year was his most productive so far and the North Carolina grad looked to expand on his success this year but the lack of an elite signal-caller hindered his productivity. This week may not be great (which is why he’s a sleeper) but the matchup is great and Ben is back. Look for Miller to come through in short yardage second downs and goal line situations.

Kicker of the week: Sabastian Janikowski: Raiders will move the chains and the Niners are struggling. 49ers have to prove they can stop someone before I anoint them a top tier defense.

Defense of the Week: New York Giants: Besides the Steelers who are clearly the best defense in the NFL this year (and really, did you expect any different), the Giants have been playing lights out over the last two weeks. They shut down Jay Cutler and Matt Forte in week 4, and turned around in week 5 and dismantled a Texans offense that has been considered the most dangerous in the league. The Lions are playing with confidence but the Giants are here to burst their bubble.

Who’s Out:

Quarterback:

-Kyle Orton (v. Jets): Every time I put him on this list he shows me up and does what he can do. Orton is at the helm of the #1 passing offense in the league and has a great receiving core behind him. But the lack of a solid run game, and the matchup against the Jets makes him a very tough play. The Jets will surely get to Orton more than he’s use to and a pair of while I think both the Jets’ corners are selfish divas, they will keep Brandon Lloyd's big play ability at bay.

-Alex Smith (v. Raiders): Nothing is worse for a starting quarterback than shaky confidence and an 0-5 start. Smith’s receivers aren’t living up to their potential yet and the Raiders defense is good enough to create opportunities for Smith to make mistakes. He may give you a touchdown but you can also count on a pick or two.

-Brett Favre (v. Cowboys): Personally, having Randy Moss on my fantasy team, I really hope I’m wrong about this one. Tendinitis and distractions abound breed an environment for decreased productivity. This was kind of a shot in the dark but at least if he plays like garbage I won’t be surprised.

-Watch Out- Tom Brady (v. Ravens): It’s not all about Moss leaving, or that I think Brady will rely to much on Deon Branch and not enough on Welker or Tate, that’s of course part of it. I also believe in the Ravens and their system. They play hard nose defense and attack from all angles. Without the proven deep threat and a run game that an experienced defense can contain, Brady may press too much to get ahead in the game. Again a long shot, I know, but at least it’s better than saying beware of David Garrard, am I right?

Running Back:

-Brandon Jackson (v. Packers): He hasn’t been productive and this will continue. One good week doesn’t constitute being a locked down starter. The Packers are struggling with two things: injuries and identity which pretty much go hand and hand. Not to mention he’s up against a solid Miami Dolphins defense.

-Ryan Torain (v. Colts): It has been brought to my attention that this isn’t the first time Torain has disappointed. As a rookie in 2008 he was highly touted as an elite playmaker in the making and he struggled to make an impact. Now he is getting his second start going up against a Colts defense that should be a favorable matchup. I don’t believe Torain has the ability to break off big runs that open things up for the offense. If you have other options keep him on your bench until he proves something to you.

-Felix Jones (@ Vikings): The word coming out of Cowboys camp is Jones will be further ingrained in the offense and will receive more touches while not yet being slated as the starter. The Boys are up against the Vikings this week and while they have struggled, expect Minnesota to come out strong shutting down Jones. They are much better against this type of agile touch runner and will not let him get to the outside. Again, one good week doesn’t make him a lock.

Watch Out- Marshawn Lynch (@ Bears): It is a bad week to become the Seahawks best, most proven back. And saying that Lynch is your best back is like saying Kevin Federline is father of the year, it’s just not accurate. The Bears will not give up big chunks of yards the Hawks and I also predict a fumble or two.

Wide Receiver:

-Greg Jennings (v. Dolphins): Jennings has already had two straight lackluster games so it should come as no surprise that he lands on the sit list. I know he ranks in the top ten but chances are you have at least two wideout who are playing better at the moment. Maybe you have Brandon Lloyd also but you’re planning on sitting him because of his matchup against the Jets…don’t. I predict Jennings will be one of the least productive regulars of fantasy football this week, especially if Matt Flynn is at the helm.

-Wes Welker (v. Ravens): Welker will receive a level of attention that he didn’t even get from his parents as a child. Defenses will swarm him in the absence of Randy Moss, at least until somebody shows they are worthy of their attention. I think Aaron Hernandez will emerge in this game but for the time being, Welker is the man to hold down. And who better to do that than the Baltimore Ravens?

-Mario Manningham (v. Lions): On paper this looks like a great week for Mario and maybe I’m totally off on this one, but with the emergence of Hakeem Nicks as possibly the best wideout in the NFL and Steve Smith still able to create opportunities for himself Manningham seems to be the odd man out. Until he consistently produces you should keep him on your bench or even drop him for a more viable option (good move by the way, Anthony)

-Watch Out- Calvin Johnson (@ Giants): There are so many reasons to be wary of this play I don’t know where to start. Johnson’s matchup is probably the worst so far this year as he is the only threat in the air for the Giants to suppress. He is dealing with a significant shoulder injury that has been described as “troubling.” If Jahvid Best can’t get the running game going you can expect Johnson to have his least productive week so far this season.

Tight End:

-Jason Witten (@ Vikings): Witten has a tough matchup this week against the Vikings. Romo and the Cowboys need to breathe some life into their team and Witten is not the man for the job this year. He will have a decent day but not great. Put it this way, the Cowboys offensive numbers are around the top in the NFC, Witten’s numbers are not.

-Visanthe Shiancoe (v. Cowboys): With Moss playing last week on less than a week of practice Shiancoe was a last resort for the Vikings. This week against a good Cowboys defense and with Moss having more time to get in sync with Brett Favre his numbers may worsen. Keep him on your bench if you can.

-Watch Out- Kellen Winslow (v. Saints): Winslow is coming off a knee injury and has only produced 214 total yards this year. The emergence of rookie Mike William as the top passing option has severely hindered Winslow’s production. The Saints are hungry for a solid victory and going up against a division rival will be motivation enough to get them of the hump. Keep him benched this week.

Kicker Sit of the Week:

-Stephen Gostkowski: Gostkowski has had mediocre numbers this year and that will continue against the Ravens this week. It’s true that if a kicker doesn’t score big for you it won’t cause you to loose, but if your kicker score 10+ for you it could be the difference in a win.

Defensive Sit of the Week:

-Dallas Cowboys: I know they are good against the run but this week they have to stop Adrian Peterson who seems to be back to his 2008 form. I know they have a decent secondary but now not only do you have to stop Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe but Randy Moss is also in the mix. Coming off a third loss the Vikings will play more desperate and put up a lot of points in this one. It’s like a pick-your-poison kind of thing and Dallas cannot stop everyone.